Future of Cities Featured

A Clash of Tradition and Economics: How Changing Media Markets Shape the College Football Landscape

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2023 has been marked by a whirlwind of conference changes among the NCAA’s “Power 5” (P5) athletic conferences. These include the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), the Big Ten (Midwest), the Big 12 (Great Plains + Texas), the Pacific Coast Conference (PAC 10, 12, or 2, depending on when you asked), and the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Originally, these conferences were structured around geographical considerations to accommodate the nation’s most prestigious athletic programs. While this geographical orientation remains relevant for most collegiate sports, the dominant driving force behind these changes are the financial incentives of having a football program that is a legitimate national championship contender. Few things exemplify this “cash is king” mindset better than the cause-and-effect relationship between the industry’s market capitalization and the continuous inter-conference activity. 

Currently, each conference negotiates the broadcasting rights to their competitions as a coordinated body. The annual revenue from these contracts increases tremendously from contract to contract, due to the growing cap of media and broadcast markets. As the amount of revenue grows so does the unwieldiness of the conferences. Conference realignments, like those that have sent the University of Oklahoma and the University Texas to the Southeastern Conference, UCLA and USC to the midwestern BIG10, have also changed the PAC-12 to the PAC-2. The orientation of the conferences and the geographic location of members always changes dramatically as the competition for broadcasting contracts and advertising dollars intensifies. 

In fact, in 1984 a landmark legal battle, NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma, brings a precedent that emphasizes the legal and economic factors at play into sharp focus. The backdrop for this lawsuit was the rapid expansion of the telecommunications industry in the early 80s, when only 8% of homes had access to basic cable, a number that continued to grow throughout the decade. Up to that point, the NCAA had maintained a hands-off approach to regulating the televising of athletic events, except for football. In 1981, the NCAA struck separate deals with ABC and CBS, allowing them to televise games and pay participating member institutions. Concurrently, the College Football Association (CFA), established in 1977 by 63 major college football programs not participating in the PAC and Big Ten, sought to advocate for their interests in TV network negotiations. The CFA’s bold move to secure a deal with NBC raised the ire of the NCAA, which then threatened disciplinary action against CFA members. 

Ultimately, the NCAA was found guilty under the Sherman (1890) and Clayton (1914) Antitrust Acts for fixing telecast prices, employing the threat of sanctions as a boycott against potential competitors, and artificially limiting televised production of college football. This verdict was upheld in The Court of Appeals, which deemed these activities as “illegal per se price-fixing” with no justifications sufficient to save the plan in terms of promoting competition. 

The consequences of this legal decision were swift. Over the next 8 years the CFA, PAC and Big Ten inked multiple deals totaling a value upward of $350 million for the exclusive broadcast rights to their college football games. Then in 1992, the Bowl Coalition emerged, a system in which two teams were selected to compete for a national championship. This was in response to two consecutive years of co-national champions that were decided using the National Poll system, which was determined by the opinions of various polls. It was at this point that teams began to exit the CFA for a variety of reasons and subsequently, fault lines in the college football landscape grew more pronounced.  

As demand for broadcasting rights increased, so did the available revenue. By 1995, the CFA was disintegrating, and by 1997, it was formally dissolved. During this same period, championship procedures underwent further changes, leading to the Bowl Alliance system (1995-1997), which offered an $8.5 million boost in ad revenue for championship game participants. By this point any hope for a centralized College Football publishing agreement had been fully extinguished. 

In 1998, the stakes increased again as the championship series underwent another transformation, becoming the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). This integrated the existing bowl games from the “Alliance” and “Coalition” and lead to a selection committee that determined placements for the top 8-10 teams. It also ensured that all participating institutions recognized the BCS Bowl winner as the “National Champion.” Television partnerships shifted from ABC to Fox in 2006 and then to ESPN in 2009.  

During this period, market capitalization and actors within the industry underwent considerable change. In 2007 the Big Ten developed their own exclusive TV networks capturing a massive share (50%+) of the college football market. Inevitably each conference followed suit and by 2012 the competition came back closer to equilibrium.  

This system persisted until 2014 when the current College Football Playoff (CFP), a system that endures to today, was established. Between 2023 and 2025, broadcasting licenses expire, and new, massive deals are set to begin for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC. In a situation similar to the CFA’s in the 90s, the PAC is dissolving. During the negotiation process for new broadcast contracts, the PAC failed to secure a deal. This leaves all but two of the former conference members scattered among the other four conferences. Because the PAC was the only conference geographically centered on the west coast, its former members will travel extended distances to play their new intra-conference opponents. Additionally, the playoff expands from 4 to 12 teams in 2024, which will inevitably inflate the value of the contracts. 

The economic repercussions of these moves can be substantial, as the absence of major events like Power 5 college football games not only impacts sports but also takes away jobs and draws spenders from far and wide. A recent Perryman Group study estimated that the University of Texas alone contributes approximately 30% of the total economic activity in the Big 12. The implications of such a significant presence by its movement to the SEC, will impact employment, consumerism, tourism, and general industry on a massive scale. It is worth asking whether the impacts of these lost economic engines are offset by the increase in revenue that is brought in to support these institutions and the communities around them that they anchor. 

As the market for college football continues to grow, the media will continue to expand, and the value of teams and players will follow. Will the traditions of college football hold strong or be completely uprooted by the dollars that are at stake? In 2021 Texas lawmakers filled a bill to block the University of Texas from leaving the Big 12, setting a precedent for legal actions that are sure to continue. 

Scroll through the images below to see conference realignments throughout the years and the participants’ relative proportion of the college football market cap. Hover over each image to learn more.

 

Justin Hill | [email protected]

Justin Hill is an Analyst at ESI. He graduated from Columbia University with a B.S. in Political Science and has experience in data visualization and management, as well as in the legal and real estate industries.

Is the Commonwealth Positioning Itself to Move up the Ladder of Economic Competitiveness?

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The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania recently announced improvements to a key economic development program, the Redevelopment Assistance Capital Program (RACP). Among other efficiencies, the Commonwealth has streamlined the application process by replacing the 22-tab Application & Business Plan with a more efficient, 10-section fillable Project Management Proposal post-award application process. Ultimately, the changes will provide a more efficient, effective, and transparent process for grant awardees and help to find quicker ways to disperse needed capital to stimulate economic activity. 

However, improvements to RACP are reflective of a much larger story, the Commonwealth’s recent commitment to make Pennsylvania a leader in economic development, innovation, and job creation. According to CNBC’s 2023 Top State for Business Ranking, Pennsylvania currently ranks 15th overall in the nation for a place to do business.​ It is also interesting to note that 6 of the top 10 states are located in the South with none in the Northeast. 

States find themselves in a position where they are competing regionally, nationally, and even globally. This is particularly true with Northeast states, who have traditionally been the primary hub for economic activity nationally. According to a Bloomberg report, the U.S. economy is experiencing a wealth migration towards the South. The report states that approximately 2.2 million people moved to the Southeast in just over two years, which is roughly equivalent to the population of Houston. The entire South, from Florida to Texas and north to Kentucky, is where businesses are flocking to, jobs are being created, and homes are being bought. The Southeast accounted for more than two-thirds of all job growth across the country since early 2020, almost doubling its pre-pandemic share. The South’s contribution to the national GDP has also surpassed that of the Northeast for the first time in government figures going back to the 1990s. The report also estimates that about $100 billion in new income flowed into the Southeast in 2020 and 2021 alone, while the Northeast lost about $60 billion based on an analysis of recently published Internal Revenue Service data.​

Pennsylvania, along with its fellow Northeastern states, find themselves in a position where they have to make investments that will not only retain jobs and population, but allow for innovation and new growth. The pivot that states must make to be more competitive, as well as have a more prosperous economic outlook, will only occur by implementing policy reforms and passing bold budgets to meet the moment.  

The Commonwealth is attempting to do both to enhance its economic position. For example, in January 2023, Governor Josh Shapiro signed an Executive Order to improve licensing, permitting, and certification processes, beginning a comprehensive review of how long it takes agencies to process applications and how workers and businesses apply online. This was done to help make government more efficient and speed up processes in order to get needed grants and capital to businesses, nonprofits, and government partners to accelerate economic investment.   

Pennsylvania’s $45.5 billion dollar budget, which was passed in July 2023, is being touted as a financial plan designed to spur job creation, fosters innovation, and provide the funding to make the Commonwealth more competitive on a national scale. This budget includes investment in a wide range of areas including infrastructure, housing, education, workforce development, agriculture, and community & economic development. Highlights from the budget include: 

  • A $50 million dollar investment in the Whole-Home Repairs program, taking a burden off the shoulders of those living paycheck to paycheck while ensuring they can afford to maintain their homes.
  • $20 million dollars to fund the Historically Disadvantaged Business Program to invest in small minority-, women-, and veteran-owned businesses in the Commonwealth and provide sustainable support.
  • $13 million dollars to make Pennsylvania more competitive on a national scale and help the Commonwealth become a leader in economic development, innovation, and job creation. 
  • $2 million dollars in the Municipal Assistance Program to help the local, municipal, and county governments that are on the frontlines of supporting their communities and a $1.25 million increase for the Strategic Management Planning Program (STMP) to help local governments create long-term plans for financial success. 
  • $1 million dollars in the Manufacturing PA Innovation Program, which connects Pennsylvania’s universities with businesses to spur innovation and job creation here in the Commonwealth. 

Although the Northeast’s big cities including Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C. are powerful drivers of economic growth that have traditionally kept the region’s economies ahead of the South’s, we have reached a tipping point. The combined GDP of Texas, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas surpassed the GDP of the Northeast region that includes Washington, D.C. and the 11 states stretching from Maryland up to Maine. In 2005, the Northeast’s share of national GDP was 23.5%, while the six-state South’s was 21.8%. In 2022, the numbers flipped: The South’s share was 23.8% while the Northeast’s was 22.4%​.

In order to maintain competitiveness, Pennsylvania and its fellow Northeast states must position themselves to reform economic strategies including tax policies and regulations, as well as make smart investments in infrastructure, economic stimulus, and quality of life assets (housing, environment, education, etc.). A new way forward will hopefully encourage more people and businesses to follow their neighbors, customers, and suppliers to economic prosperity in their respective states. Can the Commonwealth position itself to move from number 15 into the top ten states to do business? Only time will tell, but unequivocally we know that innovative and decisive action will be needed for this to come into fruition.  

 

Frank RobinsonFrank Robinson | [email protected] 

Frank Robinson is a vice president at ESI. Mr. Robinson has been a leader in the economic development and sustainable development industries for over 20 years, working with corporate, government and nonprofit clients, banks and credit unions, as well as community development financial institutions (CDFI) and small businesses.

Labor Day Light Reads 2023

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As the summer draws to a close, many will be unwinding with trips to their favorite attractions, enjoying quality time with family and friends, and more. For our Present Value post this week, we have created a list of events and interesting reads to help make the most of the long weekend. But first, let’s not forget the history of Labor Day in America.

Events and Activities

Guide to Labor Day Weekend in Philadelphia for 2023
Visit Philadelphia

Neue Galerie is Reopening with Discounted Admission to see Great Art
Time Out New York

Weekend Lineup (Sept. 2 – 5): The Best Things to do in Baltimore this Labor Day Weekend
Baltimore Magazine

Ways to Enjoy Labor Day Weekend 2023 in Washington, DC
Washington.org

Collingswood Farmers’ Market
Collingswoodmarket.com

The Latest from Present Value

The Exit Interview: Final Thoughts from our Summer 2023 Interns
By Norah Serverson, Marketing Assistant

Atlanta’s Quest for Homeownership: The Alarming Affordable Housing Crisis
By ESI Center for the Future of Cities Fellows Patrick Darcy and Samriddhi Khare

The U.S. Supreme Court Gutted Affirmative Action. Are We a More Equitable Society? Can We Be?
By Renee Cardwell Hughes, Senior Advisor

Understanding the Economic Impact of Film-Induced Tourism
By Frank Robinson, Vice President

Better Understanding NJEDA’s Aspire Program
By Stephen Madsen, Associate Director

In the News

Free SEPTA Passes are now Available for Philly City Employees and Some Low-income Residents
The Philadelphia Inquirer

Shattering Records and Stereotypes, First-Generation College Students Share their Fears and Struggles as they Leave Philly
The Philadelphia Tribune

‘We Have to Believe’: Philadelphia’s Outgoing Planning Czar Anne Fadullon on Future Development, Next Role
The Philadelphia Business Journal

This Ambitious Plan Would Revive Downtown San Francisco to End its ‘Doom Loop’
FastCompany

How Transit Villages are Reshaping New Jersey’s Urban Landscape
Planetizen

Are You Ready for ‘Extreme’ Water Recycling?
Wired

Austin Explores Cool Pavements to Tackle Heat Island Effect
SmartCitiesWorld

$150K Grant Fund Aims to Build Climate Resilience for Philly’s Environmental Justice Advisory Commission
Green Philly

 

Mike Daly, Business Development Manager | [email protected]

Mike Daly is a business development manager at ESI, where he oversees and supports the business development and marketing team. In addition to assisting with proposals, he is responsible for enhancing the firm’s brand and work through traditional and social media, producing content for the company website, managing the firm’s blog, Present Value, and supporting the development of strategic initiatives.

The Exit Interview: Final Thoughts from our Summer 2023 Interns

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As the summer winds down, ESI must say goodbye to our skilled and diligent Summer interns. Before they depart, whether back to school or for other career opportunities, we sat down with several of them to discuss their time with the firm, reflect on their experience, and offer final thoughts on what was learned. Below is their commentary.

What was your favorite project you worked on and why?

Patrick: My favorite project was the climate resiliency index I worked on with my colleague, Samriddhi Khare. The project allowed us to use skills we developed in school to produce novel research to assist policymakers in future planning decisions.

Mohanish: I thoroughly enjoyed working on ESI’s project with the Navy Yard during my time with the firm. It was the primary focus of my work throughout my internship. Additionally, I found it fascinating to transform raw data into compelling and meaningful narrative.

Norah: I really enjoyed working on the marketing efforts highlighting staff and interns. It was fun to see everyone’s plans after college and what they were the most excited for when it came to their internship at ESI. I enjoyed managing the social media accounts and looking back on our intern highlights after they were all published.

Atara: My favorite project that I worked on focused on looking at alternative development scenarios for a former airfield. This project required me to delve into a completely new industry and truly expand my skills. I appreciated being able to contribute to the project and a community.

Athena: The airfield project Atara mentioned was also probably my favorite. It was the first big project that I got to see through an almost-final draft stage, which was exciting. It focuses on the redevelopment of the site and various proposed scenarios for what could be., It was fun to learn about a whole sub-culture that I never knew existed. After preliminary research and building a genuine curiosity, I found myself really engaged with the project proposal and analysis.

What would you want to learn more about if you had more time?

Unnati: I would have loved to learn more about input/output modeling in platforms like IMPLAN. I am super interested in the data modeling that ESI conducts and feel as though it is the backbone of almost all the firm’s studies. By understanding the modeling process, I would have developed a more conceptual understanding of the economic impact studies I worked on. I would have also loved to experience working on a project from start to finish, as it would have been really rewarding to see my research delivered to our clients in the form of a final report!

Joey: I would love to dive deeper into GIS mapping.

Atara: I would love to gain some deeper understanding about how the multipliers have been developed for input output modeling. I have gotten to understand how to use IMPLAN, and how we model, but I would love to have a greater understanding of the economic research that goes into developing the program.

Athena: I’ve been trying to develop stronger mapping skills, especially in an applied career environment. There’s always a slight difference between learning skills in a classroom and on the job— and so it’s been a great opportunity to learn from people here. I’m lucky enough to have more time here at ESI, and so this is where I hope to grow in the future.

Mohanish: I would want to see a project through completely. Given my internship time frame, that was difficult.

Patrick: I would want to be exposed to additional exciting projects and further develop my skills. In particular, I would like to learn more about data analysis and have more opportunities to test my knowledge.

Norah: I would’ve liked to dig deeper into the analytical side of marketing. For example, when’s the best time to post content or who is engaging via social media or email.

Do you feel prepared for the future after interning at ESI?

Mohanish: In some sense yes. It has given me a lot of confidence and the internship experience itself was invaluable.

Norah: I do feel prepared for my future. I believe that the Business Development and Marketing team gave me all the resources to further my knowledge in the marketing field, while also helping me grow as a person.

Patrick: I am prepared for the future after my time with ESI. I have had the opportunity to develop my skills and work with talented individuals who have helped me grow personally and professionally.

Unnati: Through this internship, I feel prepared to step into an economics, finance, or data analytics role at a firm. I learned a lot of technical skills that are highly transferable across industries, like data cleaning in R and Excel, input/output modeling, mapping, and more. In addition, this internship taught me a lot about teamwork, collaboration, and leadership. I am leaving with a better understanding of how to be both a team player and a leader in corporate team environments.

Atara: I feel much more prepared for the future after my co-op at ESI. My time here has given me skills, shown me what skills I want to get, and has also revealed to me the variety of professional and education pathways that can help me accomplish my goals. I have truly gotten exposure to a variety of industries and rolls during these past few months.

Joey: Yes. As someone interested in urban planning and local government, ESI was the perfect place for me to learn more about the city and interact with many planning adjacent fields.

Athena: Absolutely! I’ll be staying with ESI as an intern this Fall and a big part of that decision was based on how much I’ve learned already. Not only have I learned the ins-and-outs of policy specific topics, but there’s a whole list of hard skills and platforms that I’ve learned here. I’m really grateful to have built these transferable skills and see myself continuing to grow in the months ahead.

What is your favorite memory from this internship?

Joey: Our spontaneous lunches in Rittenhouse Square!

Patrick: I do not necessarily have a specific favorite memory. However, I have most enjoyed working with many different talented people at ESI and collaborating with them.

Athena: The staff lunches have been such a great way to connect with the entire team. Everyone comes from such different backgrounds and career experiences that there is so much to learn. At the same time, it can feel like a small world. There are personal and professional opportunities that I’ve learned about through conversation here, as well as classmates and professors that I didn’t know previously.

Norah: My favorite memory is anything that involved me being able to get to know my team!

Atara: My favorite memory has been our company walking tour of Center City, Philadelphia. Not only did I get to learn more about my coworkers, but I got to learn about the various projects that ESI has helped enable throughout the city that I know and love.

Unnati: My favorite memory is hanging out in Rittenhouse Square with fellow interns and analysts! This was always a great way to get to know everyone in a non-office setting.

Mohanish: The Wednesday lunches. It is a great thing that the firm does. It helps build relationships and improves company culture in my view. I interacted with a lot of people through these lunches.

What advice would you give new interns coming to ESI?

Norah: I would tell the new interns to take in every minute you are here. Everyone at ESI is not only extremely intelligent, but also welcoming. It’s a great place to work at and is filled by people who want to see you succeed and are here to help you every step of the way.

Atara: I would tell future interns to take advantage of each opportunity presented to you during your time here. Talk to your coworkers, step out of your comfort zone and take on projects in a new area, sit in while coworkers are practicing skills you are interested in learning, and just be eager to learn.

Patrick: Take every opportunity you get to learn from your colleagues. The staff of ESI has a breadth of experience across many disciplines, and I advise new interns to work hard and learn as much as possible during their time here.

Mohanish: Do not be afraid to ask for help or advice. Everyone here is extremely supportive and welcoming.

Joey: Ask for more work and ask for help!

Athena: Try and get the most out of your time here, because everyone is super willing to give you the opportunity to learn and grow. If there’s a certain skill that you want to develop or a type of work that you’re particularly interested in, be sure to vocalize that! ESI’s work is so varied that there’s room to grow in a million different directions.

Unnati: Take every opportunity to get involved with new projects. I think the best thing about ESI’ internship program is that interns have the opportunity to work on multiple projects at once. By always being involved with different projects, you gain exposure to a diverse range of work that the firm does. The more projects you can be a part of, the more skills you will be able to practice. In addition, this is a great way to work with many different people on staff and learn from those around you!

 

ESI would like to thank all of our interns for their hard work, dedication, and positive impact on the firm this summer. All of your contributions have helped us grow stronger in one way or another. We are excited to watch you succeed through future opportunities. Best of luck in the future as we know our paths will cross again!

 

Norah Serverson | [email protected]

Norah Serverson is a Marketing Assistant at Econsult Solutions, Inc. (ESI) supporting the Business Development and Marketing Department. Ms. Serverson is currently a student at La Salle University studying Marketing and Communication.

Building Climate Resilience Index: An Update on our Methodology

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Continuing our research  in developing a climate resilience index, we have further refined our methodology to gauge nine cities on their sustainability and progress in adopting eco-friendly practices. This index is comprised of 30 metrics across four categories (Environment, Economy, Infrastructure, and Social) and pulls from a wide range of data to evaluate each city’s performance. Metrics include cumulative values, like total emissions, and category-specific indicators. To ensure an impartial assessment, metrics such as total emissions were standardized based on city population, leveling the playing field for cities of different sizes.

The 30 metrics offer a holistic view of a city’s performance in various areas. The Environment category, comprising six metrics, focuses on ecological factors, while the Economy category assesses economic growth and development through eleven metrics. The Infrastructure and Social categories consist of five and eight metrics, respectively, examining city planning, transportation, and social well-being. Despite varying amounts of metrics, each category is assigned an equal weight in the index which acknowledges the interconnectedness of sustainable cities’ environmental, economic, infrastructural, and social aspects.

Data for this index was sourced from governmental agencies at various levels, including federal, county, and city-level institutions. Valuable economic data came from financial reports, while additional data came from non-governmental organizations, enhancing the depth and accuracy of the index.

City case studies drew data from multiple sources, such as news publications and city government institutions, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of each city’s sustainability efforts. Combining objective data from official sources with insights from journalistic coverage and localized administrative data provided a more nuanced perspective.

Though the city sustainability index is a valuable tool for assessing and comparing cities, it has limitations. Due to data unavailability, proxy variables were used, potentially affecting the accuracy of specific metrics. Some variables may have become outdated during development, leading to inaccuracies in the evaluation process.

Time and resource constraints limited the inclusion of more variables, hindering a more comprehensive assessment. Additionally, the diverse environments of the cities analyzed may have introduced bias in the index metrics, necessitating a cautious interpretation of the results.

Despite these challenges, the city sustainability index was designed for replicability and adaptability. The structure allows for periodic updates and the addition of more cities in the future, facilitating the measurement of progress over time. Relying primarily on data from reputable government organizations ensures data availability for future evaluations.

A standardized ranking system further enhances flexibility, enabling seamless integration of new cities without disrupting the existing scoring range. This consistency extends the index’s utility to a broader range of locales, encouraging continuous efforts toward city sustainability worldwide.

In tandem with the development of the index, we have also been working on distinct case studies highlighting best practices and areas for improvement in all nine cities. These include the work done by various city governments to improve resilience measures, such as Berkeley’s Community Resilience Centers. 

In the initial findings, the scores across the cities displayed a considerable variance, suggesting diverse performances in the assessed factors. Interestingly, no distinct group of cities, whether categorized by size or growth rate, stood out with notably higher scores than others. However, a discernible trend emerged, indicating that coastal cities tended to score higher compared to inland cities. This observation may hold valuable implications for city policymaking and the adoption of sustainability practices. As we continue to delve deeper into the trends and nuances of the index, we hope to uncover meaningful insights that can inform strategic decisions and contribute to the promotion of sustainable and progressive urban development.

 

About ESI Center for the Future of Cities

ESI Center for the Future of Cities brings together experts in urban economics, policy, and strategy to craft new evidence-based research on the most important issues facing cities around the world, and to provide consulting services for public and private sector organizations working in urban settings. As the firm’s thought leadership arm, it brings together ESI’s expertise in urban economics to address the most prominent issues facing cities around the world. City leaders need a blueprint for building safer, more sustainable, and resilient 21st Century cities. 

 

Patrick Darcy, Fellow | [email protected]

Patrick Darcy is a fellow supporting ESI’s thought leadership initiative, ESI Center for the Future of Cities. He is a recent graduate from Temple University where he graduated with a BBA in Economics, and is currently working towards his MS in Financial Analysis with an anticipated graduation date of 2024. 

 

 

Samriddhi Khare, Fellow | [email protected] 

Samriddhi Khare is a fellow supporting ESI’s thought leadership initiative, ESI Center for the Future of Cities. She currently attends the University of Pennsylvania and will be graduating in 2024. Samriddhi will receive her Master’s in City Planning with concentrations in smart cities and technology. 

Atlanta’s Quest for Homeownership: The Alarming Affordable Housing Crisis

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Throughout American history, homeownership has been cherished as a symbol of wealth, community, and achievement. Additionally, affordable rental units are crucial as they provide stable housing and alleviate financial burden. However, today, the goal of owning a home and even finding affordable housing options is becoming increasingly elusive for millions nationwide. An alarming shortage of homes and affordable rental options has rendered this dream increasingly unattainable for hardworking individuals and families, exacerbating economic disparities and even leading to a rise in homelessness. The nation faces a severe deficit of 5.5 million homes and an acute scarcity of 7 million affordable rental options for low-income households, disproportionately impacting marginalized communities. 

Rising housing costs are reaching a critical point, affecting the lives of millions of hardworking individuals and families. A distressing 45.7 percent of renters are cost-burdened, with nearly half considered extremely cost-burdened. Cost burden is defined as a household paying 30 percent or more of income toward housing-related expenses. Extreme cost burden is a household paying 50 percent or more income toward housing related expenses. Among the most vulnerable, Black households experience the highest cost burden rate at 54 percent, followed closely by Hispanic households at 52 percent. This alarming trend extends to mortgage applications, where Black applicants are disproportionately more likely to face denial. Housing cost burden is critical as it has a major impact on financial stability and general wellbeing and can force individuals and families with limited resources to make extremely difficult financial decisions. 

 

  

 

 The rapid decline in housing listings in recent years significantly contributes to the nationwide surge in median home prices. Coupled with U.S. rent increases consistently outpacing income growth, the housing crisis has culminated in a concerning rise in homelessness, affecting those already marginalized by economic disparities. 

Various economic factors have all resulted in a trend towards higher home and rental prices, from restrictive zoning laws inhibiting home construction to the escalating costs of building new properties. Population growth, urbanization, economic expansion, and wage hikes have further strained the supply and demand dynamics. Adding to the complexity, a surge in institutional investor activity and property ownership has exacerbated the situation, making homeownership and affordable rental options seem unattainable for many aspiring Americans. 

As housing prices continue to soar, these unrelenting trends are compelling young adults to alter their consumer behaviors drastically. Today, 52 percent of 18 to 29-year-olds are living with their parents, more than at any point since the Great Depression. In addition, 68 percent of parents with young adult children have or are making financial sacrifices for their children, often dipping into precious retirement savings to do so.  

The affordable housing crisis is even more pronounced in urban areas where the bulk of preferred economic opportunities are. Atlanta, for instance, is experiencing a severe increase in housing costs. Median listing prices in the Atlanta metropolitan area have risen 63 percent over the last five years, compared with a 28 percent increase in per capita personal income. Median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Atlanta rose 77 percent from 2019 to 2022. Atlanta hourly wages experienced just a 13 percent increase in the same period.  

The national statistics are reflective of the same trends – while renting may be month-to-month more affordable than the costs associated with homeownership, it does not offer a path to building generational wealth. The median net worth of homeowners is approximately $255,000 and the median net worth of renters is roughly $6,000, a stark difference. Additionally, home equity offers more affordable access to capital in the event of a personal financial crisis, business start-up expenses, college tuition, or other long term financial investments through a collateralized loan.  

Prices rising at a historic pace have made America’s housing situation unsustainable, making the goal of homeownership a virtual pipe dream for many. Even the cost of renting is exorbitantly high compared to just a few years ago. It is imperative for governments and policymakers to provide affordable options for low-income households and dismantle systemic barriers that disproportionately affect marginalized communities. Only through collaborative efforts can we ensure that homeownership remains within reach for all, preserving a better quality of life for generations to come. 

 

Patrick Darcy, Fellow | [email protected]

Patrick Darcy is a fellow supporting ESI’s thought leadership initiative, ESI Center for the Future of Cities. He is a recent graduate from Temple University where he graduated with a BBA in Economics, and is currently working towards his MS in Financial Analysis with an anticipated graduation date of 2024. 

 

Samriddhi Khare, Fellow | [email protected] 

Samriddhi Khare is a fellow supporting ESI’s thought leadership initiative, ESI Center for the Future of Cities. She currently attends the University of Pennsylvania and will be graduating in 2024. Samriddhi will receive her Master’s in City Planning with concentrations in smart cities and technology.