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What is Ahead for Cities in 2023?

January 27, 2023 by Mike

The beginning of the year always brings about fresh new goals, opportunities, and a renewed perspective and evaluation of the prior year’s objectives. As technology continues to evolve, so do our expectations of how these changes are going to manifest in the new year. Here at Econsult Solutions and ESI Center for Future Cities, we listed our top trends for 2023 and our predictions on how technology-driven solutions will make an impact in the coming year.

Citizen-centric tech will be a key priority

As technology becomes further interwoven into the fabric of our cities, we expect to see continued emphasis on technology that keeps the citizens’ needs as a priority. With different city services becoming more digitized, data is being used to provide solutions to urban infrastructure challenges. Citizens will push for more equitable solutions that can help solve issues like gun violence, income inequality, and housing affordability, with a focus on protecting vulnerable populations, low-income families, senior citizens, and the disabled. City leaders and stakeholders will have to address these social issues, and technology will either be a great tool or a potential encumberment.

EV charging infrastructure will continue its upward momentum

We have written extensively about electric vehicles (EVs) over the course of 2022, and do not expect the momentum of EVs and their deployment to slow down. As the markets begin to open to a broader consumer base, smaller and medium-sized cities will need to leverage federal dollars and strategize both efficient and equitable infrastructure deployment plans. As EV infrastructure continues its rollout, we predict the focus will turn to fleet electrification for school buses, city buses, and other public transit systems.

Artificial intelligence and machine learning will leverage open data in a big way

Artificial intelligence (AI) has made waves in the city service environment by leveraging data to increase services in waste management, pavement maintenance, security, and transit. We expect this trend to continue, but also expand into other industries like construction and healthcare. As AI technology continues to advance, equity and privacy concerns will rise as technology is piloted to the public. AI technology like gunshot detection will gain widespread adoption, but cities will need to employ an equity lens to keep their citizens safe.

Infrastructure Bill & Inflation Reduction Act will start to take shape on the state and local level

In 2023, we of course expect see the rollout and impact of the recent landmark bipartisan infrastructure bill. As funds are distributed to cities and towns across the country, government officials will have to make strategic decisions about how money will be allocated and which projects to prioritize. There will be an emphasis on building the nation’s EV charging infrastructure, especially along regional corridors. States will have to juggle traditional investments in road networks and highways with more innovative updates, like autonomous vehicles that will propel cities into the next generation of advanced infrastructure. There will be an increased need for infrastructure that is both sustainable and climate resilient, with special attention to the nation’s power grids, and water and sewage systems.

Concurrently, the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) extends tax credits for both new and used vehicles an additional 10 years, which addresses some of the accessibility concerns of low and middle income consumers. The new act also reinstated the EV charging and equipment tax credit that expired in 2021.

WFH is here to stay, and downtown development must reinvent itself

It is no secret that the pandemic disrupted industries and business sectors worldwide, but one change that we are still seeing the effects of, is the impact of company work-from-home (WFH) policies. WFH has disrupted city centers globally, as more and more workers opt to do business from the comfort of their own homes. Fewer workers in buildings mean fewer users of public transit and services, which ultimately less generated revenue for the city. In 2023, we predict observing more innovative ways to reuse, readapt, and revitalize downtown corridors. We think there will be a rise in adaptive re-use for more affordable housing units, and innovation spaces that merge live, work, and play.

New York City, with the assistance of ESI, convened a task force on the future of office space. That report provided recommendations and strategies for converting office space to residential uses. This recognizes the continued attraction of cities for residents, but also the shift of office work from office buildings to residential offices.

Nightlife is rebounding, and cities can benefit

While downtown centers reinvent themselves during 9-5, there has been and always will be an opportunity for nighttime activity that could be leveraged for increasing daytime economic activity. A report done by ESI studied the impact of nightlife in New York on businesses, retail, restaurants, and transportation. Translating the economic impact of nightlife in cities like New York to struggling daytime downtown districts like those in San Francisco can be a powerful tool in the age of work from home.

Stronger commitments to green infrastructure will need stronger funding

Meeting net zero and decarbonization goals will take the collaborative efforts of cities, tech companies, and investors alike to ensure they are delivered. COVID-19 shed light on just how imperative investments in blue and green infrastructure is, with large attention paid to the value and need for more green open space. Park and green corridors will be what makes cities more resilient for the future, and a recent report conducted by ESI found that financed green infrastructure has economic, environmental, and social benefits for residents, as well as the city at large. The report also included recommendations for small and medium sized cities on how to finance green infrastructure projects of their own.

Greening efforts will be especially important going forward, as extreme temperatures continue to have devastating impacts in urban regions in particular. ESI’s article from this past summer took a deep dive into the phenomena of urban heat islands and their disparaging impacts on the elderly, low income folks, and black and brown residents. We are expecting to see an increase in specialized task forces and roles in government like heat chief positions, which will be tasked with evaluating, assessing, and tackling excessive heat in their cites.

Innovative public transportation policy and programming will have great impacts

With the new funding from the infrastructure bill being distributed, state and city governments will build momentum on large infrastructure projects, with public transit requiring a large portion of budgets. We expect to see more government, private sector, and university collaborations for broader and innovation-based programming. These partnerships will be crucial when developing strategic plans to increase ridership in metropolitan cities hit hard during the pandemic. One entity tackling this is Philadelphia’s Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) through its Key Advantage Pass program, which allows organizations to purchase passes for all their eligible members at a special discounted price of an all -access pass, lower commuting cost for employees.

The digital divide will narrow, but digital privacy risks will widen

The digital divide has been steadily closing and with heightened ferocity since the pandemic exposed lack of broadband in rural and some disconnected urban areas. While those efforts have been successful, the new year will bring more attention regarding digital privacy and cybersecurity as more and more citizens engage with city digital infrastructure and services. In 2023, cities will need to ramp up data privacy protections to ensure its citizens’ privacy and data are not breached by bad actors.

That’s what we think, What predictions do you have for cities in 2023?

Kendra Hills, Intern | [email protected]

Kendra Hills is an intern at Econsult Solutions supporting ESI’s Center for the Future of Cities. She is currently a Master’s student at the University of Pennsylvania, studying city & regional planning with a concentration in smart cities.

Steve Wray, Senior Vice President & Principal | [email protected]

Steve Wray is a senior vice president and principal at Econsult Solutions and Lead Principal of ESI Center for the Future of Cities. He leads the work of the firm’s principals and senior staff in developing new partnerships, expanding and building on existing practice areas, and integrating the firm’s strengths in economic analysis and thought leadership.

ESI Turns 10: What Lies Ahead

January 20, 2023 by Mike

Just as today’s forward-looking post builds from last week’s retrospective look, we are honored to stand on the shoulders of the co-presidents who went before us and set the standard for leadership and integrity in economic consulting. Steve Mullin and Dick Voith have set a high bar for us; thankfully, they’re still firing on all cylinders to help us to succeed.

We work hard every day to steward the reputation of the firm as providing sophisticated quantitative analysis and policy research to advance solutions in the real world for a wide range of clients. What energizes us about this role is how great the challenge and opportunity will be to do this well going forward. We are living, after all, in an era of mountains of data and yet a deep mistrust of Big Data, seeking to contribute to a deeply inquisitive social discourse whose participants are nevertheless often skeptical of if not downright antagonistic of “the other side.” Honest, substantive analysis has never been so assailed and yet so valued.

Succeeding as a firm for the next 10 years and beyond, and having fun while we’re at it, will thus involve answering more and harder questions than ever before. To “what’s going on,” a bread and butter inquiry we’ve historically been brought in to provide clarity on, we find ourselves being asked three additional questions, which we are eager to rise to the occasion to have a meaningful answer to:

“What’s next” – People want to see around corners, and ESI is ready to detect the patterns from what was before to inform what might be after.
“What should be next” – “Should” introduces a value judgment into the conversation, which is to say some outcomes are better than others. Which we’re well suited to help people navigate, given our training in seeing all sides of a discussion and assigning weights to different outcomes.
“How do we get there” – Analysis is only as good as its ability to be translated into advice, which in turn is only as good as its ability to be actionable. Having sat in many professional seats in our collective careers, we can speak from experience about how to get things done and move the ball forward.

That ought to keep us busy for a while. We’re eager to continue the good work into a bright future, and to engage with many people, organizations, and issues along the way.

Peter Angelides, President & Principal | [email protected]

Dr. Angelides focuses his work at the intersection of economics and urban development, including real estate, economic development, city planning, transportation, tax policy, valuation, and litigation. He helps clients pursue economic development, gain entitlements, assess feasibility, and prepare grant applications, among other undertakings. He leads ESI’s Real Estate and Litigation practices, and he often presents findings in public venues, such as courtrooms or public hearings.

Lee Huang, President & Principal | [email protected]

Lee Huang brings over 20 years of experience in economic development experience to ESI public, private, institutional, and not-for-profit clients. He leads consulting engagements in a wide range of fields, including higher education, economic inclusion, environmental sustainability, historic preservation, real estate, neighborhood economic development, non-profits, retail, state and local government, strategic planning, tax policy, and tourism/hospitality, and is a sought-after speaker on these and other topics.

ESI Turns 10!

January 13, 2023 by Mike

While the ‘Econsult’ name and business traces its roots back to the late seventies, Econsult Solutions, Inc., or ‘ESI’ as we commonly refer to ourselves, celebrates ten years in business this year. And as any small business owner knows, ten years is no easy feat. It’s a milestone worth celebration, but also reflection to take stock of where we’ve been and where we want to go.

Originally focused in providing economic analysis and witness testimony for litigation matters, Econsult Corporation diligently serviced clients throughout the Mid-Atlantic. In the early 2000’s, the company’s scope expanded, and taking stock of the evolution of the firm, a succession plan was implemented, pulling certain practice areas out of Econsult Corp. and officially giving life to Econsult Solutions. In this time, our practice areas have grown to include economic development, equity and inclusion, government and public policy, real estate, transportation and infrastructure, and universities and hospitals, while not losing sight of our initial litigation efforts.

Within a decade, we have had the privilege of offering our expertise to clients across the country, and at times, around the world, in economic and fiscal impact analysis, performance benchmarking, community and neighborhood development, public policy, strategic planning, as well as conducting surveys and primary research. Even now, ESI continues to push into new territory, providing not only quantitative, but qualitative analysis, supporting clients in more strategic advisory settings, generating forward-looking thought leadership content, and examining the future forces affecting cities and regions, both large and small.

We have also had the pleasure of working with an amazingly talented team of staff members who have diligently served our mission of providing impartial expert analysis grounded in sound economic principles. They have represented the firm with the highest levels of dedication and talent. We have witnessed many advance within the firm and take on new responsibilities, eager to meet the challenges that are presented. Those that have moved on from the firm have gone on to do great things in a variety of public and private settings. It has been a pleasure seeing their careers flourish and their reach spread far and wide. We are proud to have fostered an environment that values diligence in this way. Our senior advisors have also played a major role in expanding the firm’s geography, skillset, and real-world knowledge understanding of the implications of certain choices and policies that distinctly complements our practice areas. The advisory board has grown to over 75 talented individuals who have all held significant positions in business, government, academic, and non-profit organizations, providing yet another level of rigor and know-how to our work.

While there’s no crystal ball for us to perfectly predict what will happen in the next ten years, we can confidently say that continuing to provide the highest quality of services and capabilities will remain our utmost priority. That as an organization, we continue to recruit bright, energetic individuals passionate about the work we do. That we are able to meet the most pressing challenges our clients face to help them make their case in a way that is effective and considers all angles of the topics at hand. And that the guiding values which birthed this company ten years ago live on.

Stephen P. Mullin, Principal & Board Chair | [email protected]

As Co-Chair of the ESI Board of Directors, Stephen Mullin provides expertise to clients in the fields of economic development, public finance, policy analysis, real estate, energy, and business and government strategies. Mr. Mullin served as President since the firm’s inception and is now guiding strategic planning and development of the firm for its posterity.

Richard Voith, Principal & Board Chair | [email protected]

Dr. Richard Voith is a founding principal of ESI and Research Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania Institute for Urban Research (Penn IUR). He is a widely published expert in real estate economics, transportation, and applied microeconomics. He oversees a wide variety of projects in the realm of housing, labor markets, transportation, and economic development. Just as importantly, he is involved in setting the strategic direction of organizations both large and small.

Thanksgiving 2022 Light Reads

November 24, 2022 by Mike

For this week’s Present Value post, we gave thanks! Please enjoy this list of interesting reads, fun activities, and ways to support charitable causes this holiday season.

On behalf of the entire ESI team, we hope you have a happy Thanksgiving.

Ways to Celebrate

Activities, Shopping, and Dining

Check out this list of 29 things to do in Philly during Thanksgiving week, courtesy of Visit Philadelphia

Find a new favorite restaurant with this list of 40 new and soon-to-open restaurants the Inquirer has assembled

Discover your new favorite retailer this Small Business Saturday

Charitable Causes

Consider joining the Giving Tuesday movement or become a Kiva lender and support a worthy cause you are passionate about

Make an in-kind donation to Bethesda Project, People’s Emergency Center, Why Not Prosper, or the Philadelphia Foundation

Volunteer your time with Philly House, Mighty Writers, or Philadelphia Animal Welfare Society (PAWS)

Support the Veterans Multi-Service Center, or Esperanza, Project HOME, or Prevention Point

The Current State of EV Policy in the United States

November 18, 2022 by Mike

Cities and states across America are beginning to take more strides toward fully adopting electric vehicles (EVs) and integrating them into the fabric of their road and urban infrastructure. The benefits of making the switch from internal combustion engines (ICE) to EVs are growing and well documented, and their popularity has also grown significantly in the past few years. States are hoping that with regional consensus, cities will be cleaner, greener, and quieter with widespread EV adoption. This has proven challenging for American cities, and there have been significant barriers to preventing EVs from gaining a large market share. We have outlined these barriers in a previous article titled, Prioritizing Equity in EV Infrastructure Planning with Data, but they can be summarized as the following:

EVs are generally still more expensive than traditional ICEs
Lack of charging stations and charging infrastructure
Lack of EV knowledge, exposure, & visibility
Limited EV financial incentives
EV model availability

Addressing these barriers will need effective, comprehensive, and long-term policy and strategic planning for cities to reach electrification and emission targets. Municipalities both small and large will need to look to their states for not only guidance on EV policy, but also as a partner to voice their specific needs to. Adapting state policies to different levels of government – local, regional, and federal will be key for widespread EV adoption and will also be the most challenging.

How can cites be sure they are implementing the most effective EV policies? Here are some popular policy recommendations and case studies that have been effective across different states.

Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate

Some governments leading mass EV adoption have implemented aggressive electrification goals with the intent of adopting a 100% electric share between 2025-2050, with zero emission mandates. Zero emission vehicle (ZEV) regulations have accelerated the rate of EV adoption on a regional scale within states like California, and have had immense success in in achieving lofty goals of reducing greenhouse gas. In the United States, ZEV mandates are issued at the state level, and California has been a state leader ever since their first ZEV mandate in 1990. One of the key features of California’s mandate is its requirements of manufacturers to meet rather strict ZEV percentage credits. The mandate also requires auto manufacturers to produce an increasing number of ZEVs each year beginning in 2026. The mandate also takes measures to ensure that consumers are buying ZEVs that are sustainable and have longevity with enhanced durability and warranty requirements. By 2030, California expects vehicles to maintain at least 80% of electric range for 10 years or 150,000 miles. Although California has some of the stricter EV and ZEV policies in the nation, the direct intention with future-proofing mobility innovation, and building direct relationships with manufacturers and technology providers is a lesson that could be adopted in other states across the country.

Flexible, Long-term EV Financial Incentives

Ensuring that citizens can afford EVs is critical. Tax benefits, incentives, and rebates have been successful ways for states to promote the use and ownership of EVs. 45 states and the District of Columbia all provide some sort of incentive. Increasingly, states are amending their policies to include additional provisions for low income and disadvantaged communities.

Virginia recently passed an EV rebate program that applies to new and used EVs. As EVs begin to take up a larger portion of the market, expanding access to used vehicles also expands EV access to a significant number of Americans. This rebate program allows for a $2,500 rebate at the time of purchase for both buyers and leasers, with an additional $2,000 rebate toward either a new EV, or $500 towards a used EV for low-income customers.

EV-Cross Collaborations

Collaborative EV efforts across state lines will be a critical strategy in transportation electrification, and states have been leading the way in creating integrated policies to ensure a more robust buildout of charging infrastructure across major highways.

The Regional Electric Vehicle Midwest Coalition (REV Midwest) has made bipartisan efforts to involve governors and decision makers from Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to develop a new regional charging infrastructure network. The REV Midwest sets out to accomplish three goals: Accelerate medium and heavy-duty fleet electrification, elevate economic growth and industry leadership, and advance equity and environmental goals. Additionally, increasing the number of charging stations is one of the main goals of REV Midwest, as they hope to boost potential consumers’ confidence and ease the range anxiety that comes with not knowing if charging is available outside of private at-home chargers. This multi-state collaboration leverages increased public and private interest/funding for EV infrastructure and allows states to share ideas and opportunities surrounding EV implementation. More state collaboration can make room for taking bigger risks with EV infrastructure and finding innovative partners to get the job done.

Local partnerships are just as important as multi-state partnerships, and San Francisco has been a leading example in this, creating the Electric Vehicle Working Group. This group aims to identify key policies and partners to aid EV growth within the city. The group is comprised of 15 representatives from city departments and agencies, along with stakeholders from regional and state agencies, as well as industry and non-profit organizations.

These are just some ways cities and states can prioritize equitable widespread electrification. Policies that are both strict enough to reach target greenhouse reduction goals, but also flexible enough to change with the needs of consumers will be important for cities and states to transition to a more sustainable future.

Kendra Hills, Intern | [email protected]

What Tuesday’s Election Could Tell Us About Philadelphia’s Political Future

November 4, 2022 by Mike

Post updated November 15 with new unofficial election data from the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, as well as an analysis at the bottom of the post.

The most recent presidential election found Philadelphia at the center of the American political universe. For days after the election, the nation’s attention was glued to the vote-counting at the Pennsylvania Convention Center as the election hung in the balance, and along the way, an ordinary landscaping business became an internationally recognized landmark.

The 2022 midterm elections will renew national attention on Philadelphia, with competitive races for open Senate and Governor seats set to decide the nation’s balance of power heading into the 2024 Presidential election. The city has often been at the center of statewide election debates during this campaign season — in Pennsylvania and across the nation, urban crime has been raised as a campaign issue to an extent not seen in many years, although data shows a complicated story regarding overall crime trends.

As a swing state, Pennsylvania often plays a critical role in determining the winner of the electoral college, and the upcoming Senate election is crucial for both parties, each hoping to control the chamber.

Not only are election results in Philadelphia important to city politics, but city results often shape the results of statewide elections, determining how wide margins have to be in the rest of the state. This means that reducing Democratic margins in the city, even if all other factors stay the same, makes it easier for Republicans to win the state, presidency, and control the Senate, and vice versa.

With these trends in mind, and with a mayoral election looming in 2023, the 2022 election could be a bellwether for Philadelphia’s political future – even though no local offices are on the ballot.

To better understand Philadelphia’s political geography and how the upcoming election may signal changes to come in city politics, ESI analyzed publicly available data on Presidential, Senate, and Governor races in the City of Philadelphia between 2008 and 2020, with results broken down by City ward and division. Election maps for each of these contests can be viewed below, with a red to blue color scale representing the Democratic margin of victory or loss in each division:

The following takeaways result from the election data above:

Philadelphia is a heavily Democratic city — even in its most conservative neighborhoods. It comes as no surprise that Democrats typically win by large margins in Philadelphia. Still, even in the city’s most conservative neighborhoods, many still vote for Democrats. Look no further than the 2014 gubernatorial election, when Gov. Tom Wolf won nearly every division in the city —a strong enough Democratic candidate has been shown to win even in the city’s most right-leaning divisions.
The 2020 presidential election results differed from prior races both presidential and non-presidential: though Democrats still won handily in Philadelphia, Republicans made unprecedented inroads into urban communities. In the days and weeks after the 2020 presidential election, Republican reductions of Democratic margins in strongly-Democratic urban neighborhoods were among the most significant shifts from 2016. In Philadelphia, this trend is most apparent in Eastern North Philadelphia, including Fairhill and Kensington, where a significant swath of the city dipped from >75%+D to 50-75% D in the 2020 election. While these are still very large margins for Democrats, they represent a significant change — and this data shows that this change is essentially unprecedented not only in presidential elections, but in any major elections of the past decade and a half.
The 2022 election will test whether the 2020 presidential election results signal a paradigm shift, or simply a one-time occurrence. If Republican gains in urban neighborhoods from 2020 hold or increase in 2022, a political shift may be occurring — potentially altering national and local campaigns for years to come. If Democrats return to large margins in urban neighborhoods, the 2020 election results may be considered a one-time fluke.

At the national level, the results of this test will signal what is to come in the 2024 presidential campaign. At the local level, these results will have implications for next spring’s mayoral race. A campaign in which Republicans continue to make inroads into urban communities could preview a mayoral campaign in which conservative approaches — including the “tough on crime” approach which brought Democratic New York City mayor Eric Adams to office in 2021 and is now being emulated by statewide Republican candidates — return to the agenda. Conversely, should the political tides swing back towards stronger Democratic showings, the 2023 mayoral campaign may look more like the 2021 Philadelphia District Attorney’s race, where progressive DA Larry Krasner won handily citywide against a “tough-on-crime” opponent.

Post-Election Update: 2022 senate and gubernatorial election data as of November 15 has now been added to the visualization above. Historically, the part in power tends to lose seats in midterm elections, so Democrats’ unexpectedly strong performance in the 2022 elections was widely noted. However, data tells a more complicated story regarding potential political shifts in parts of Philadelphia. While it appears that Democratic governor and senate candidates regained some ground in Eastern North Philadelphia neighborhoods compared to the party’s presidential performance in 2020, Democratic margins in these neighborhoods still appear smaller than they were in the 2018 races for the same offices. The shift away from Democrats compared to 2018 appears to have been much more pronounced in the Senate race than in the gubernatorial race. The Senate race was closer overall, and there were more complicating factors, as compared to the gubernatorial results. These results indicate that a modest political shift in some urban neighborhoods may be here to stay, at least in national elections; these trends will continue to be watched in future elections.

This post does not represent an endorsement by the firm or by the author for any particular candidate or party.

John LaVaccare | [email protected]

John LaVaccare is an analyst at ESI. As a graduate of the Master’s in Public Policy and Management program at Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College, where he concentrated in Urban Development, John LaVaccare has academic knowledge in urban economic development, urban design, urban ecology, and real estate development. Prior to ESI, Mr. LaVaccare gained work experience in local government, housing policy, and stormwater management. Mr. LaVaccare also has extensive experience in academic communications research, journalism, and professional writing.