Cook County, Illinois used funds from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) to implement the Cook County Promise Guaranteed Income Pilot, which provided $500 monthly payments to 3,250 low-income households from December 2022 to January 2025. The County sought information on program outcomes to inform a decision on how to proceed following the pilot period. The University of Chicago Inclusive Economy Lab, a research center focused on policies that promote broadly shared economic opportunity, engaged ESI to conduct an economic and fiscal impact analysis of the pilot to complement the Lab’s evaluation of individual participant outcomes by assessing how recipient spending stimulated local economic activity and generated public revenues.
ESI estimated the share of the $19.5 million in annual program funds that translated into additional household spending, accounting for time substitution, debt repayment, and savings behavior. ESI then built a model that traced new household spending through Cook County’s business and industry sectors. Using IMPLAN input-output and fiscal modeling, ESI estimated the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of participant spending on the Cook County economy. Sales tax revenue from this additional economic activity was modeled for the state, county, regional transit district, and city of Chicago to estimate the direct fiscal return to public entities. These findings complemented broader research by the University of Chicago that looked at impacts on participant well-being and outcomes.
The study estimated that participants allocated approximately $10.9 million of the $19.5 million distributed to household spending, with an estimated $8.3 million spent at Cook County businesses. Spending was concentrated in retail, arts and entertainment, and food services, sectors characterized by high shares of small, women-owned, and minority-owned businesses. The program generated an estimated $286,000 in annual state and local sales tax revenue. The findings demonstrated that direct cash assistance impact extend beyond individual financial stability by strengthening local economic demand, job support, and public fiscal returns.
In November 2025, Cook County approved County funding for Fiscal Year 2026 to continue to program beyond its original federally-support pilot period. More information about the program and the study is available at:
https://arpa.cookcountyil.gov/promise-guaranteed-income-pilot-program
