ESI Senior Advisor and Community Data Analytics (CDA) Project Lead, Sidney Wong, with Senior Vice President, Peter Angelides, Director, Daniel Miles, and Senior Advisor, Steven Nelson, will lead three sessions titled: “Demographic Multipliers -> Development Impacts”, “Demographic Multipliers & Planning Ratios,” and “Improving Fiscal Impacts Analysis” at the APA National Planning Conference. The four day conference will take place from May 6-9, 2017 at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York City. The conference will feature new plans, proposals and projects in five boroughs and three states.
“Demographic Multipliers -> Development Impacts” will focus on the state-of-the-art in generating demographic multipliers. The last time statewide demographic multipliers were assembled, they were based on Census PUMS records from the late 1990’s. Therefore they no longer reflect current demographic conditions. With advancements in data mining technology, we can now generate demographic multipliers annually within weeks after updated ACS PUMS datasets are released. The methodological improvements allow us to deliver multipliers for small geographic areas and develop new multipliers and planning ratios by a variety of housing configurations and household attributes, such as age-restricted development, TOD, and condominiums.
“Demographic Multipliers & Planning Ratios” will discus population and housing changes in the past two decades that have made the demographic multipliers published in 2006 outdated. This poster session will compare current and old multipliers to highlight these changes and show divergent trends between single family and multifamily units. Presenting current multipliers at the local level, the poster illustrates the vast local variations within selected housing types. The poster also discusses alternative samples to meet specific nature of a development, and illustrate the difference between average and marginal figure. The poster outlines the data source (PUMS records of individuals, households and housing units), the methods, and the potential of generating additional planning ratios for planning and estimation of development impact.
The final session, “Improving Fiscal Impacts Analysis” will expand on the following topics:
- Traditional methods used in fiscal impact analysis.
- The legitimacy of criticisms against FIA by academics.
- The validity of received conclusions of FIA results.
- Alternative cost estimation methods under the condition of marginal costing.
- Fiscal equilibrium and differentiation of fiscal impacts by the nature of development.
Our panelists will also review lessons learned from decades of FIA practice, including claims that only non-residential development could generate surplus, each unit built would generate one student, and multifamily development is more costly than large single family development.
May 6-9, 2017
Jacob K. Javits Convention Center
655 W. 34th Street
New York, NY 10001
Demographic Multipliers -> Development Impacts Session
Date: Sunday, May 7, 2017
Time: 9:30 – 10:45 AM
Demographic Multipliers & Planning Ratios
Date: Monday, May 8, 2017
Time: 1:30 – 2:30 PM
Improving Fiscal Impacts Analysis
Date: Tuesday, May 9, 2017
Time: 9:30 – 10:45 AM
For more information and registration, click here.