NewCourtland engaged ESI to examine Philadelphia’s shifting housing and demographic landscape and to evaluate the market rationale supporting its proposed Community Homeownership Demonstration. The nonprofit sought an independent assessment of whether a missing middle housing model, pairing affordable homeownership with a master-leased senior unit, could address the city’s aging homeowner population and the barriers younger, working families face in entering homeownership. NewCourtland needed data-driven context to support the demonstration’s design and to make the case for its replicability among peer non-profit community development organizations.
ESI drew on the American Community Survey, HUD’s special tabulations of households, the Pennsylvania State Data Center, CoStar, and Redfin to characterize Philadelphia’s housing stock, homeownership patterns among older and younger households, and generational shifts projected through 2050. The analysis compared housing production against household growth, examined the age and condition of the existing single-family and middle-density housing stock, and quantified the share of aging homeowners facing adverse housing conditions such as inadequate plumbing, incomplete kitchen facilities, or housing costs exceeding 30 percent of income. ESI also benchmarked the demonstration’s projected per-unit development cost against Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) construction to evaluate its scalability relative to existing affordable housing tools.
The analysis found that Philadelphia’s housing stock has not kept pace with household growth: total units grew 8 percent between 2019 and 2023 against 11 percent household growth, and approximately 70 percent of the city’s single-family and middle-density homes were built before 1960. These findings supported ESI’s assessment that a mismatch between aging homeowners in oversized or poorly suited homes and younger households seeking entry points into home ownership represents an underused source of housing supply.
The report also positioned the Community Homeownership Demonstration as a lower-cost alternative to LIHTC-funded senior housing production. ESI’s analysis concluded that NewCourtland’s model, built at roughly half the per-unit cost of traditional subsidized housing construction, offers a replicable approach that other community development nonprofits could adopt, making a broader case for the demonstration’s rollout and its potential to shape future affordable homeownership policy.
By leveraging missing middle housing typologies and integrating affordable senior units within family-owned homes, this model enables aging adults to remain in their communities with dignity while also providing working families and younger households with attainable pathways to homeownership. This approach fosters intergenerational connections, strengthens neighborhood resilience, and promotes inclusive growth.