ESI was retained by the City of Baltimore to conduct a robust market study to assess the viability of a citywide Affordable Housing Tax Increment Financing (TIF) initiative aimed at addressing long-standing housing vacancy and disinvestment challenges. This innovative initiative utilizes a $150 million bond program (with $65 million in initial authorization) to make funds available to redevelop or rehabilitate nearly 4,000 vacant properties across neighborhoods to address long-standing housing vacancy and disinvestment challenges.
The market study combines citywide and neighborhood-specific housing data with broader economic indicators to assess localized housing demand, demographic trends, affordability, and macroeconomic conditions. Our team examined the condition of Baltimore’s housing stock, occupancy trends, household demographics, and affordability metrics, to assess both local and regional demand for housing among households earning 60%–115% of Area Median Income (AMI).
ESI’s methodology included a citywide scan of current housing conditions, mapping of unoccupied and cost-burdened units, and matching housing price points to potential buyers. The study evaluated macroeconomic risks, such as high interest rates and rising construction costs, against strong policy and demographic trends supportive of housing redevelopment.
The study revealed that Baltimore’s dated and constrained housing stock, paired with steady household growth and rising prices, creates a strong basis for demand. Over 100,000 households in the City and 384,000 households in the surrounding metro area meet the program’s income criteria, underscoring broad demand for renovated or new affordable housing. Housing costs grew faster than inflation from 2019 to 2024 and over half of Baltimore’s renters are cost-burdened, signaling urgent affordability needs.
The market study was utilized as part of the City’s documentation for a Series 2025 Bond Offering for investors. These bonds will support the first $65 million in program funding.
