Philadelphia’s Fiscal Future Research

Econsult Solutions, Inc. (ESI) was retained by The Pew Charitable Trusts to provide research and analysis in support of a series of Pew publications on scenarios for Philadelphia’s economic and fiscal future post-COVID. ESI worked collaboratively with the Pew team to shape the key research questions, identify data sources and collect information, develop economic scenarios of alternative futures for the city, and analyze the economic, fiscal and equity implications of these scenarios. The project resulted in a series of four briefs published by Pew:

For the series’ first brief, ESI supported Pew with research on how the pandemic impacted the city’s economy relative to national trends, and disparities in recovery trends across demographic groups, income levels, and sectors.

See: How the Pandemic Has Affected Philadelphia’s Economy and Jobs: First findings of a series based on new research show the city is experiencing lingering job losses, with Black and female workers hit hardest

For the second brief, ESI worked with Pew to develop four potential scenarios for Philadelphia’s economic performance over the next several years, and estimated the gap in city employment in total and by sector between these illustrative futures.

See: 4 Possible Scenarios for Philadelphia’s Economic Future: In-person activity and business investment could be keys to job growth

For the third brief, ESI supported Pew with analysis of the trajectory of city revenues, and who pays for them, would change under each of the four economic scenarios developed.

See:  How Future Employment Patterns Could put Philadelphia’s Operating Budget at Risk: Four scenarios that will affect tax revenues – and who pays for them.

For the fourth brief, ESI supported Pew with research into where the city stands two years into the pandemic, and the implications of key recovery trends evident in the data to date.

See: 5 Key Economic Trends and the Critical Questions They Raise for Philadelphia: Employment, remote work, and housing will play a decisive role in the city’s prospects for an equitable pandemic recovery.

Key Technical Applications

  • Economic Analysis
  • Fiscal Impact Analysis
  • Policy Research

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